Gender Schema Theory Essay

What is gender schema theory? Gender schema theory was formally introduced by Sandra Bem in 1981 as a cognitive theory to explain how individuals become gendered in society, and how sex-linked characteristics are maintained and transmitted to other members of a culture. Gender-associated information is predominantly transmuted through society by way of schemata, or networks of information that allow for some information to be more easily assimilated than others. Bem argues that there are individual differences in the degree to which people hold these gender schemata. These differences are manifested via the degree to which individuals are sex-typed. It concerns the development of an internal schema, or mental framework, which organizes and directs the behavior of an individual as a male or female. For example, the gender schema of being female might include the proposition â€Å"I am a girl, so I play with dolls, not trucks.† As every person should know male and female children become â€Å"masculine† and â€Å"feminine†, and mainly at a very young age. By the time they are four years of age, for example, girls and boys are typically come to prefer activities defined by the culture as appropriate for their sex and also to prefer same-sex peers. The acquisition of sex-appropriate preferences, skills, personality attributes, behaviors, and self-concept is typically referred to within psychology as sex-typing. When children are younger, including me, parents tell the girls don’t play with cars, those are for boys. Girls play with dolls, and because you are a girl you must play with dolls, and vice versa for the males. The children gain and follow this information as they go on they are being punished or rewarded for their actions. For example, the girl will stop playing with the toy car, and won’t be yelled at by her parents for playing with a boy’s toy. As the years go by they believe all of this is true because people tell them it is and their culture also tells them this so they continue with this information.

American Mania: When More Is Not Enough Essay

INTRODUCTION It takes immense courage to question something that has been so firmly etched into one’s mind or something that everyone accepts as normal, it also takes great insight to be able to see past the monotony and mundane details of life and observe something that is greatly and equally affecting a nation. Mr. Whybrow accomplishes this with great eloquence in his book American mania. Adam smith’s American dream of depth and desire† The book begins with the chapter titled â€Å"Adam smith’s American dream of depth and desire† in which Mr. Whybrow gives an account of his taxi ride on the way to the airport to catch a flight from Los Angles to New York, he tells his story in almost a poetic manner describing the myriad of scenes that he observes. He points out everything that makes him reflect on how rapidly the world is moving and how everyone is being swept away with this storm and how no one stops to think about where they’re actually headed and how everyone has less and less time for the small things in life, things which once were considered to be the essence of life. The author seeks to explain â€Å"the dramatic shift away from social concern and toward competitive self-interest that occurred during the closing decades of the 20th Century† (p. 257). Whybrow, himself a British immigrant, advances the hypothesis that Americans are a nation of â€Å"migrants† who are outfitted not just with the self-seeking genes but also with the restless, risk-taking genes of those who have risked all to look for a new land of opportunity. Whybrow argues that highly migrant people are novelty seekers, restless and optimistic risk-takers, CONCLUSION Whybrow’s theories are provocative because they not only revisit the possibility of psychoanalysis in the alliance of culture, speculating beyond the anthropology and identity politics that all cultures are just as advantageous, but also challenge us to reassess the insufficiency of our psychological descriptions. Identifying a culture as hectic or obsessed is somewhat useful in attempting to avoid the idea of national character but to propose a basic personality as the repository of a society’s values, from which individual character differentiates is a mammoth task Mr. Whybrow manages to make the reader question the values and beliefs that we have come to cherish so dearly. WORKS CITED Peter Whybrow (2006) American Mania: When More Is Not Enough. Retrieved on 18th October 2006 from : http://www.amazon.com/American-Mania-When-More-Enough/dp/0393059944

Economic Value Added (EVA) Statement Research Paper

Economic Value Added (EVA) Statement - Research Paper Example EVA is one such performance measurement tool that captures the financial profit and shareholders wealth. â€Å"EVA subtracts the cost of capital from the net operating profits after tax (NOPAT) generated in the business. It is a measure of the residual income from the income statement after accounting for the cost of the balance sheet† (Economic Value Added, 2007). How can Economic Value Added (EVA) Statements be used to improve financial statement reporting, results, and success? EVA statements are formed on the basis of two financial statements-the balance sheet and the income statement. EVA Statements can be Used as a Valuable Tool to Improve the Financial Statements: With the correct prediction of economic profits every financial year, EVA statement shows how much value is additional to the capital. It helps to set the goals of business, incentives of management, and pay bonuses for better performances which cannot be obtained from the cash flows of financial statement. .. . It helps to analyze the capital budgeting and long term investment decisions of the firm. Since it helps in calculating the financial profits, it can be a very useful performance measure which supports the financial statement of the business. It increases the average rate the of returns of shareholders. This helps to increase the rate of capital. EVA statement clearly specifies how much amount is given as tax, and therefore helps correct estimation of expenses in the financial statement. It also shows the economic value generated and distributed in the business. EVA can raise the firm’s investment, which is presently very low. The managers are thus paying attention on increasing earnings that they acquire on projects, for which the earnings do not validate the capital investments. EVA statements are based on financial statements; it is helpful to find out any faults and make adjustments in the accounting principles that can improve the capital and operating profits. As financi al statements are based on the generally accepted accounting principles, there will be mistakes, and therefore correct adjustments one needed, which can be possible through the EVA. EVA statements help in calculating the weighted average cost of capital; it is useful to estimate the risk and returns involved in the project of the business. What are some of the problems found with EVA? Though EVA is a useful method to evaluate the performance of business; it has some limitations which are as follows: EVA is considered as a short term performance measurement tool. Companies focusing on long term investment decisions cannot use EVA as a performance measurement. The EVA for future investments can not be calculated independently with every performance calculation, as

Cognitive Dissonance Impacts Repurchase Intention Research Paper

Cognitive Dissonance Impacts Repurchase Intention - Research Paper Example The moments immediately after purchase, trigger a series of thoughts in the minds of customers. The consequence of losing other substitute choices and impact of gaining alternate choices together can produce mental irregularity, thus, compelling the customer to reconsider the insight of the purchase decision (Kassarjian & Cohen, 1965). Statement of the Problem Cognitive dissonance occurs when a purchaser becomes dissonant about his/her purchase decision. The research seeks to investigate the problem of cognitive dissonance to understand what aspects lead to dissatisfaction after a purchase decision. A dissonant consumer can return a product or discontinue use of a particular service. The concept of cognitive dissonance is much important for organizations because it can significantly impact on the customers’ post purchasing behavior (Hamza & Zakkaria, 2012). The major problem studied in this research is to understand the consequence of cognitive dissonance on the repurchase int ention of customers. The research findings in this paper will help businesses to understand better how to retain a customer by reducing the dissonance. The purpose of this research is to examine how cognitive dissonance among consumers can lead to a decrease in customer repurchase. Significance of the Problem The significance of this problem is prevalent in customer retention. Drege (1991) depicted that most companies have a customer acquisition strategy, but few companies have a customer retention strategy. Once companies acquire customers they do not develop a plan to keep them for long-run. Many times, it can be observed especially in retail segment that customer returns or exchanges product because of dissatisfaction. Thus, businesses suffer because the relationship they have with the consumer is not managed well. Businesses also face impact heavily from a lost sale, which results in acquiring a returned product that has lost its value. If there is a way to reduce the dissonance that a consumer feels after purchase behavior, it could lead to positive impacts for the consumer and businesses. The problem of dissonance also represents other significant issue concerning consumers that often experience of dissatisfaction, and failure to complaints result in silent departure of customers from using the company’s services. According to Chebat, Davidow, & Codjovi (2005), a silent loss can create negative impacts on companies such as losing a customer, along with their lifetime flow of revenue. The other negative impact silent losses have on companies is the inability to address the problem at hand. Dissatisfied customers who never protest are subject to multiple losses due to similar reasons. Companies cannot fix problems they do not know to exist. When companies fail to adhere to dissonant customers, they run the risk of harmful word-of-mouth reviews. There are only few investigative researches undertaken about the impact of cognitive dissonance and repurc hase intention of customers. Therefore, there is a requirement for increased number of experimental research where relationship between these two variables can be analyzed. This research can further be studied by analyzing respondents about the reason for remaining in good relationship with an organization for a longer period of time. Literature Review According to the observation of Leon, cognitive dissonance is related with the relationships about understandings of people.

Google Marketing Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Google Marketing - Case Study Example The company of Google focuses on the user thus ensuring that the quality of advertising is useful to the consumer just as much as it is to the company itself. Unlike other companies, Google focuses on doing a small number of advertisements but of high quality and yielding results. In addition, Google is fast than other search engines and aims to achieve democracy and always doing great. This business practice has seen Google rise to the best search engine since 1996. Moreover, the company has a philosophy that a person does not need to be at their desk in order to make money or to get an answer. Different types of online advertising are used today one of them being text ads. In this form, the adverts are displayed, as simple, text-based hyperlinks are known as Text Ads. This form of advertising does not include graphics or images. They are mostly found on non-search websites and can be served by separate websites or an issuer’s individual ad servers. Moreover, there are display advertisements, which are mostly available in many standards shapes and sizes. Such websites include posters, trailblazer boards, towers, huge boxes, and extra sized graphical ads. For Google to be successful in their display ads, it will try to win adverts away from advertising in the US television industry. The company will also require creative capabilities and relationships with large advertising agencies. Other areas that Google will have to venture in future is the mobile telephone advertising which has over 3 billion users (Kerin et al, 2010).

Principal Perspective from Coaching Teachers lessons Thesis - 1

Principal Perspective from Coaching Teachers lessons - Thesis Example hin the limited research available, it seems the multi-roles employed by coaches are valued and respected and considered as a necessary resource for improving and supporting enhancement of teachers’ teaching practices. Leadership in education has been defined in a plethora of ways over the last decades and this accumulation of varied definitions serves to make the immense differences in opinions and discernment about school leadership more apparent. Historically, educational leadership was considered a means of support for teaching staff by heads of department, school principals, lead or master teachers, social workers, supervisors and education specialists (Sparks, 2002; Sledge & Morehead, 2006). During the twentieth century the role of school leaders has changed significantly, and as Suskavcevic & Blake (2001, p.2) point out, it has been ‘highly transformative’. They further claim that in the 1930s the primary role for principals was as ‘scientific manager’; in the 1940s it was as ‘democratic leader’; in the 1970s it was as ‘humanistic facilitator’; in the 1980s it became as ‘instructional leader’ (p.2) and currently it is as †˜transformational leader’ (p.4). In light of the current situation within school leadership today and the way in which roles are changing for principals, this study is undertaken solely by researching current literature in accordance with following aims. As far back as 1954, Mackenzie & Stephen considered the principal of a school to be the leader in terms of instruction (cited in Greenfield, 1987). They considered leadership to be a ‘natural accompaniment of the goal-seeking behavior of human beings’ (p.4), and that any pursuits undertaken by one teacher that assists in another teacher achieving their goal is an example of leadership. They further purport that leadership can be assumed by anyone considered as ‘having control and means’ of what others want (p.9) and that the concept is dynamic and thus

A problem in the career field- Finance Assignment

A problem in the career field- Finance - Assignment Example arguments that oppose the practice and support the practice in order to provide a well-balanced analysis of whether the activity should be allowed to continue in contemporary finance. The article suggests that this activity potentially gives some investors an unfair advantage which disrupts the efficiency of a free market economy. On the other hand, there are other proponents of insider trading that suggest the practice enhances entrepreneurial innovation and creativity. Ma & Huey-Lian suggest that the reason for this conflict is that there is no solid definition of what actually constitutes insider trading activities, which leads to irrational judgments that the practice is unethical. In an attempt to rectify this confusion, the authors provide a rational definition to assist the reader in determining whether we should still, today, consider the practice unethical and immoral. The authors of this article point out that it is common practice for investors to buy large quantities of a company’s stock in order to gain control over voting rights and corporate decision-making. It is common, in the future, for buyers of common stock to sell these securities as a means of diversifying one’s personal financial portfolio. Ma & Huey-Lian offer that there is nothing unethical or immoral about this practice since it is a widely-accepted practice in the investment world. Whether or not the investor bought the stock based on their own evaluations and perceptions or through insider-generated knowledge would then seem to be irrelevant in determining the morality of the activity. The investor would still own majority stock in the company, which gives them control, and always have the right to sell these products when they are no longer satisfied the investment is conducive to their financial needs. In concluding remarks, the main point of this article is to highlight that ethics are not universally-endorsed. The authors make a special point to highlight that before society

Comparison between united arab emirates vs other coutnries in the Research Proposal

Comparison between united arab emirates vs other coutnries in the middle east.political issues - Research Proposal Example It is as a result of diversification and political inclusivity that the UAE has grown at a faster pace compared to Saudi Arabia, which discovered oil close to two decades earlier. Founded on 2nd December 1971, the UAE is a federation of seven emirates that gained independence from the UK and were effectively granted the liberty to govern their security and foreign issues. Prior to discovery of oil, the UAE economy largely depended on fishery and pearl industries. Nonetheless, the UAE started depending heavily on oil for more than thirty years, thus suffering a significant setback following the global financial crisis of 2008 to 2009 (Aartun n.pg). In the recovery period, however, the UAE has shifted towards economic diversification and creation of opportunities for its nationals through education, improved trade, manufacturing, tourism, and logistics. Saudi Arabia is a supreme monarchy, which has established its niche in the global economy through its immense oil revenue. Oil is the dominant economy driver in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This implies that the country’s socio-political welfare is hinged on oil prices’ evolution. One of the key differences between the UAE and Saudi Arabia is that the former is a federation, whereas the latter is a monarchy. This means that in the UAE, there is a president, while specific powers are allotted to the federal government and others to individual emirates (Henderson n.pg). In Saudi Arabia, however, power is reserved for the Royal family, which also gets the most important societal positions, which may occasionally heighten tension among the underprivileged members of society who may feel alienated (Gause n.pg). Further, while the UAE is characterized by a legislative structure combining Islamic and civil law, Saudi Arabia primarily adopts Islam law, which is not adequately inclusive. In regard to the economic

Doctor of Philosophy Essay Example for Free

Doctor of Philosophy Essay Rich are not relevant to a general audience: â€Å"From the time I was small, I have been very active in defending our environment,† â€Å"From the first time I saw environmental protestors, I realized that they were all crazy. † Note that some of these topics could be converted into theses that would be arguable to a general audience if they were de-personalized and established as arguable issues. Also keep in mind that personal examples may play a significant supporting role in your essay–but not in the thesis or topic sentences. †¢ A thesis should be very clearly written in precise, familiar terms, avoiding language that is overly vague, broad, specialized, or technical. You can assume that your general audience consists of well-informed, intelligent adults with good, general vocabularies, but you cannot assume they are specialists in a particular subject–at least not in English 1A. Example of a vague and overly broad thesis: â€Å"In some cultures, aspects of the environment may play a role in life’s spiritual and metaphysical dimension. †Example of a thesis that is too specialized for a general reader: â€Å"The image of the child in eighteenth- and nineteenth-century scientific, historical, and literary narratives is often representing or figuring interiority, growth, historicity, and development. † (This thesis may be quite clear to advanced scholars of literature or history, but a general audience would probably find it too obscure. ) †¢ A thesis may reliably forecast the organization of the essay, letting the reader know what main supporting points will be covered and in what order. This forecast is sometimes called a plan of development (POD) or a blueprint. A POD is often a good idea, but it is not an obligatory part of the thesis in English 1A; you may present it in the sentence following the thesis, or you may skip it altogether Example of POD in thesis: Skateboarding should be limited to special parks because it poses a nuisance to pedestrians, leads to serious injuries, and causes thousands of dollars’ worth of damage to public and private property. Example of POD following thesis: Skateboarding is not just a harmless recreation and should, in fact, be limited to special parks. As it now stands, the sport poses a nuisance to pedestrians, leads to serious injuries, and causes thousands of dollars’ worth of damage to public and private property. The following thesis rules also apply to your essays in English 1A, but keep in mind that as your academic writing becomes increasingly skilled and sophisticated, you may outgrow these restrictions. And they may not apply to the essays you write in other courses (check with your instructors). †¢ Limit your thesis statement to one sentence. †¢ Do NOT frame your thesis as a question–it should be a declarative statement. †¢ Do NOT rely on an implied thesis. We will encounter some implied theses in our readings, but your essays must have an explicit thesis statement. †¢ The thesis must appear in the essay’s first paragraph (the introduction) at the end of the paragraph. †¢ Underline your thesis in English 1A to make it easier for me (and for you! ) to identify it.

GWF Hegel and the Development of Moral Integrity Essay Example for Free

GWF Hegel and the Development of Moral Integrity Essay Moral integrity is the core and purpose of Hegel’s moral writing. The point is to reconnect mankind with the nature and purpose of their development, something that Bookchin shares. Moral integrity is a process, a process that develops only through institutions, and hence, is perfectly a part of this paper: ethical integrity is a social integrity, both created by and mediated by institutions (Horowitz, 1966, 8). For Hegel, these institutions are three-fold, the family, the civil (economic) society, and the state itself. These three things work together to form to integral personality and mediate it through the various elements of day to day life. While often highly rarified and theoretical, it seems that Hegel, in reality, is the most practical of all the writers we have examined. The moral personality as an integral unit is mediated through, first, the family. Initially the moral personality is seen as the opposite of integral: completely and absolutely free to adopt any end whatsoever. This is not a good things, but is the very source of capriciousness and arbitrariness. The entire point of building the morally integral person is to provide this otherwise empty will with purpose and content. The first institution to do this is the biological family. In this first and vital institution, the human person is shaped to love and to see oneself in the other. Mutual aid is a fact in the family, and such mutual aid seeks no profit, but exists in and of itself, helping and assisting for the sake of loving (Horowitz, 1966, 12). But this institution, as significant as it is, is not self-sufficient. In order to function and survive, it needs to be a part of the broader society and its productive capacities, hence, it passes over into what Hegel calls â€Å"civil society. † This second institution is similar to Locke’s principle of productive property. This is the realm of free action, of the drive to manifest one’s personality in work. Here, it is morally legitimate and useful for a person to seek gain and profit. The family was the arena for love and self-sacrifice, civil society is the arena for its opposite. But, just as the family is not self sufficient, neither is the market. The market leads to oligarchy ane the domination of capital. If unchecked, as Bookchin reminds us, the market will take on a life of its own, and all things will be valued on the basis of their monetary value. Hence, the economic life of the people will finally resolve itself into the state, a far more complex manifestation of the family, headed by the king, a patriarch (Yack, 1980, 710-712). The state manifests the universal mind of the people. Locke and Proudhon hold that the true nature of the natural law has its repository in the people: here, it is the people coming together in the state, the state as the ultimate integral individual. So while all three of the above writers saw the state as a problem, Hegel views it as the solution. If natural law and moral integrity are a single concept with basically a single content, then the central state becomes all important as the physical manifestation of this. What is significant is that all four of these writers got to their conclusions in the very same way, through the application of natural law in the construction of morally integral beings. 5. Conclusion All four of these writers used natural law. All four denounced the world of market capitalism that is not restrained by natural law. All four sought to define the integral individual. Locke sought to define this in the property owner, virtuous in the respect that he would not judge in his own case, but he will be a part of a limited state that would objectively apply civil law to criminal cases. Proudhon rejected the state, and defined the integral person as a producer, a part of a guild or organization based around economic function, operating in a free arena where goods and services are exchanged via contract. The morally integral person, then, functioned as an honest broker, one who maintains his promises and promotes the good of all in so doing. For Book chin, the morally integral person was a real citizen: the balance between market goods, the natural world, political rights and communal responsibility. The morally integral person limits his needs to what is good for the community and what preserves the natural beauty around him. Lastly, Hegel sees the morally integral person as a developmental entity: someone who has all his natural attributes, the lover and the fighter, synthesized in the state and the national culture. Bibliography: Bookchin, Murray (1993) â€Å"What is Social Ecology? † in Environmental Philosophy: From Animal Rights to Radical Ecology. ME Zimmerman, ed.Prentice Hall Forde, Steven. (2001) â€Å"Natural Law, Theology and Morality in Locke. † The American Journal of Political Science 45, 396-409 George, William (1922). â€Å"Proudhon and Economic Federalism. † The Journal of Political Economy. 30, 531-542 Horowitz, Irving. (1966) â€Å"The Hegelian Concept of Political Freedom. † The Journal of Politics. 28, 3-28 Proudhon, Pierre (1977) The Principle of Federation. The University of Toronto Press. Seliger, M. (1963) â€Å"Locke’s Natural Law and the Foundation of Politics. † The Journal of the History of Ideas. 24, 337-354 Yack, Bernard (1980) â€Å"The Rationality of Hegel’s Concept of Monarchy† APSR 74, 709-720

Price Forecasts for Oil

Price Forecasts for Oil â€Å"TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING CRISIS ANALYSIS† Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART ONE Michel Godet indicated that qualitative parameters were important in accurate forecasting. Using the available information in the international literature and between 1000 and 1500 words: 1. Mention the qualitative parameters that may be considered in future energy price scenarios. For this purpose take the year 2020 and list, with a brief explanation, the parameters you consider should be included. 2. Which of these parameters can you reasonably quantify? (Attempt to identify at least five parameters) 3. Do you agree with this specific aspect of Godets proposition? Why or why not? 4. Evaluate a crisis impact of the accuracy of technology forecasting. Identify the parameters characterizing the crisis aspects. Accordingly, present your opinion about the validity of the forecasts. 5. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 estimate (using extrapolation techniques) the expected nuclear power time evolution between 1987 and 2007. Comment on the accuracy of your forecasts in relation with the real data. Can you mention any lead time between the major accident of Chernobyl and the reaction of the international electrical power market? PART TWO The OPEC oil price rise in 1973 had an important effect on energy use and energy efficiency, although much of the impact was short-lived. In 2003-4 the oil price effectively doubled, reaching $50/barrel for a period and lately it has reached over $90/barrel. A major player now is Gazprom in Russia News has broken that Gazprom will cut supplies of natural gas to Europe unless it is allowed to raise prices by 200% for export customers, (Customers in Russia historically pay much lower prices). Using the available information in the international literature and between 2000 and 2500 words: 6. Describe your measured response to this, as either an energy Supplier or major energy user. 7. Would you say that your response was based upon â€Å"out of the box† solutions, or a more conservative, incremental approach? 8. Discuss the relative merits and limitations of each of these possible responses, identifying what you believe the two approaches mean. 9. How this crisis shall influence the future of European economies? How could these effects been mitigated? Make your own forecasts. Your answers to 6-8 above are based upon assumed positions within organisations which may employ many people. The next part of this question relates to the impact rising energy prices and, perhaps more importantly, the effect of climate change, may have on your own style of living. 10. At a personal/domestic level, can you foresee a situation in which we may consider that for the benefit of all, we may need to make do with less, in terms of capital goods, travel, and perceived acceptable levels of comfort? Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART A-Introduction Based on the Prospective approach and the scenarios method (Godet, 1982), Michel Godet noted the limitations of the classical forecasting concerned with quantification and models (see also Appendix, Table Ap.I). According to Godet, models that only consider quantified parameters do not take into account the development of new relationships and the possible changes in trends. The impossibility of forecasting the future as a function solely of past data is directly related to the omission of qualitative and non-quantifiable parameters such as the wishes and behaviour of relevant actors (Godet, 1982). Furthermore, to structure future scenarios, the variables related to the phenomenon under investigation and the variables configuring its environment should be recognized and analyzed in detail. Besides, the interrelationship among variables, the relative power and fundamental actors, their strategies and available resources as well as the objectives and constraints that must be overcome, should also be taken into account. By granting energy as a commodity under the view of conventional economic theories, markets and price mechanisms are used in order to allocate the respective resources. More specifically, it is the interaction of demand and supply in the markets that allocates resources and largely shapes prices, and it is the broader ecosystem boundaries that these market interactions take place in. Energy pricing, with energy being perceived either as an input or as a potentially polluting source of our ecosystem, clearly stands upon both the sub disciplines of resource and environmental economics (Sweeney, 2004), also depending on the social, political and technological status of the time being and the time to come until 2020. In this context, one may acknowledge a bundle of parameters that may be considered for configuring the respective future energy price scenarios. What is important to note is that similar to the beliefs of Godet, the parameters involved should be studied in terms of interrela tionship, while qualitative and non quantified parameters should be taken into account as well. Question 1 As already mentioned, the configuration of prices within a market -the energy market currently discussed- is largely dependent on the supply and demand balance. This is measured by the respective supply and demand tension expressing the status of a commodity in market terms and providing indications concerning potential energy price changes. While high tensions imply prices imbalance, the opposite is valid for low tension rates. Hence, in order to evaluate future energy prices on the basis of parameters, one should identify the parameters that influence the supply-demand balance in every of the fields previously acknowledged (i.e. social, political, environmental, economical and technological). In this context, in 1.1 the most influential of the parameters configuring energy prices may be encountered. Energy markets are largely influenced by the economic growth factors expressed on the basis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, interest and unemployment rates. Given the economic growth along with the parameter of demographics (regarding both the population increase and migrations) one may picture the corresponding trend in energy consumption (i.e. the demand side). Following, policy decisions concerning the determination of fuel mix are determinative as far as energy pricing is considered. For instance, fossil fuels continuing to dominate will stimulate stricter pollution prevention legislation measures (e.g. taxation) and policies for tackling climate change and global warming that will raise energy prices. In parallel, the reinforcement of the respective market holders, potentially leading to strong monopolies, should also be expected. Turning to renewable energy sources may on the one hand -for some of the technologies- imply an adjustment period in order for the corresponding markets to balance and on the other entail significant environmental benefits, in monetary terms as well. Global warming and climate change effects being evident supports the implementation of mitigation measures towards the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this holding a key role in respect of the future. Reserves holding a key role in the future configuration of energy prices not only in terms of scarcity, but also in terms of production costs is directly related with the technological development concerning the exploitation of new deposits and the promotion of substitutes. As already implied, the power of existing markets is another key factor while the efficiency and absorption of energy investments -the investment shares and outcomes of research and development efforts should be underlined- must be also taken into account. The factors concerned with the quality of life suggest an additional parameter that may affect energy consumption patterns and one that cannot be easily captured despite of the indices recommended so far (Allen, 1991). Moreover, as properly put in the Annual Energy Outlook of 2007 (EIA, 2007a), energy markets projections are subject to much uncertainty (unanticipated events). Many of the events that shape energy markets and therefore the price of energy as well cannot be foreseen. These include unexpected weather events and natural disasters (Rezek and Blair, 2008), major innovations and technological breakthroughs (Marbà ¡n and Valdà ©s-Solà ­s, 2007; Varandas, 2008), disruptions and whirls in the political level (Stern, 2006) with analogous societal consequences, the outbreak of a war (Tahmassebi, 1986; Fernandez, 2008) or a nuclear accident, all of them either smouldering or implying blind spots that cannot be directly projected and consequently quantified. Besides, another area of uncertainty is concerned with the fact that even the established trends steady evolution cannot be guaranteed. Summarizing, a brief explanation was presently given on how each of the parameters acknowledged may influence energy pricing. Additionally, an effort was also carried out in order to give a short description of the interrelationship among parameters, this supporting one of Godets arguments. Insisting on the interrelationship of variables, several of the parameters previously encountered should be diffused to every major regional energy market, the latter being largely influenced by the relationship between fuel types and energy sectors (see also 1.2). Eventually, one may result in a rather complex system that encounters the evolution of influential parameters inside the balance between energy types and energy sectors, this revealing the crucial role of energy fuel mix previously discussed. Following, an effort is carried out in order to reasonably quantify some of the parameters acknowledged. Question 2 Given the bundle of parameters that are thought to influence future energy pricing, a certain number of them can be quantified. For instance, the parameters of population, economic growth, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, energy reserves, and energy fuel mix can be expressed in numerical terms. Demographic growth examines how regional and global demography changes over time. According to the United Nations projections (UN, 2006), world population will increase by over 1 billion people in the years to come until 2020, this suggesting an annual increase rate of 1.1%. While in some areas there is a negative population growth to be considered (e.g. European countries), the opposite may be encountered for some of the Asian countries (e.g. India) where overpopulation is met (see for example 2.1 with EIA forecasts). Besides, the migration of people comprises an additional factor influencing energy patterns via the imposition of unequal population distribution already encountered due to birth and mortality rates. Based on the energy consumption trends ( 2.2), it is expected that energy demand related to all energy products will increase in the years to come, even in such levels that supply may not be able to adequately respond (Asif and Muneer, 2007). In fact, the annual world energy consumption growth is approximately 2% with projections supporting future average rates of 1.1% per annum (EIA, 2007b). In fact, by considering the two of parameters so far examined one may result in the most substantial energy per cap index, clearly establishing the differentiation in energy consumption patterns among world regions (see also question 10). Furthermore, according to the WEO claims (WEC, 2007) that energy generated from fossil fuels will remain the main energy source (expected to cover almost 83% of global energy demand in 2030) and given the 2020 time horizon, much depends on the appearing constraints of world energy reserves, especially those regarding oil and natural gas. While certain studies sound relieving (WCI, 2007), others questioning the extent of increase in the production outputs ring the alarm of forthcoming peaks within the next one or two decades (Bentley, 2002). If the latter is valid, the corresponding demand will not be met, prices will rise, inflation, and international tension will become very likely to occur, and inevitably energy users will have to ration (Wirl, 2008). Overall, what the combination of energy mix with energy reserves provides is the measuring of security of supply, the latter configuring the supply and demand tensions, largely shaping energy prices. Besides, targets set in respect of renewable energy sources further penetration also provide a quantification view; e.g. the EWEA target for 22% coverage of the European electricity consumption by 2030 (EWEA, 2006). Next, expressing economic growth on the basis of gross domestic product (GDP) suggests a constant increase of the former within the range of an average 3% to 4% per year (IMF, 2004), noted during the period from 1970 to 2003. Again, inequity that is to be considered among different world regions is directly related with the previous parameters, illustrating the energy requirements variation. A characteristic example considers China demonstrating an average annual percent change of GDP 2.4% greater than the world average. In 2.3, the respective trends of GDP growth up to the year 2020 may be obtained. Finally, the environmental impact of energy use being expressed on the basis of GHG emissions not only considers the fuel mix and energy consumption but also takes into account the technology used for energy generation. Taking CO2, an increase of 17Gt in a 34 years period, i.e. from 1970 to 2004 (IPCC, 2007), indicates the strong increasing trend, also presented in 2.4. Given also some of the commitments adopted in order to mitigate the greenhouse effect however (e.g. the Kyoto protocol), further quantification, not relying solely on past trends, is possible. The stimulation of additional mitigation measures until 2020 is rather likely, this both imposing the need for shifting to non-fossil fuels and developing cleaner energy generation technologies. Considering the various parameters trends illustrated above, one may sense that the tensions between supply and demand, this comprising the main driver for energy prices, are going to rise. Energy consumption, GDP and population rates on one hand demonstrate the demand side, while declining reserves and mitigation measures describe the opposite supply side. In between, the decisions for future energy fuel mix patterns, although able to completely reverse the energy markets status quo, are not thought to radically vary within the next 10 to 15 years. Hence, unless some major changes occur, the rising tensions between supply and demand imply both instability and increase of prices on a global level with strong differentiation to be encountered among different world regions. As far as the degree of energy price variation is concerned, the implementation of forecasting may both incorporate all of the pre-mentioned parameters and provide various scenarios considering each ones expected fu ture time evolution. Question 3 As previously seen, several parameters were acknowledged in order to form future energy price scenarios. While some of them were possible to quantify, others although not quantified were equally important inputs to keep in mind. Apart from the given inaccuracy of data (either high or low levelled) coupled with unstable models and the pertinacity of explaining the future in terms of the past, Godet emphasizes on the lack of a global and qualitative approach concerned with forecasting (Godet, 1982). Although quantitative methods may prove to be reliable enough and reasonably accurate for short term forecasts, the same is not valid for forecasts concerned with longer periods. The greater the distance from the reference point, the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to provide valid forecasts (see also 3.1). In this context, it is critical to comment on the relativity of time scales noted among the study of various phenomena. Hence, what may seem short termed for one phenomenon studied may actually comprise a long period forecast for another that appears to be rapidly changing over time. Any case given, the chances of significant changes regarding the environment in which the phenomenon under study develops are considerably higher as the time horizon becomes longer and it would be more or less naà ¯ve to solely depend on forecasting methods like the extrapolation of trends. Furthermore, the complexity of phenomena studied and the interdependence among the influencing parameters calls for the inclusion of both quantitative and qualitative parameters with Godet clearly addressing the complementarity between the prospective and classical forecasting (Godet, 1982). It was in fact during the first section of this part that the analysis of energy pricing configuration revealed the importance of interaction between quantitative and qualitative parameters. Energy price could not be disengaged from the parallel evolvement of parameters that even though not easily quantified, do structure the phenomenon environment (e.g. political, technological, economic, social, legal and other aspects). What must be outlined here is that similar to the scaling of decision making (strategic-long term, innovative-medium term, operational-short term), the role of quantitative data is gradually fading out as we tend to conceptualize the entire phenomenon environment. Hence the bro ader the view, again the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to support a reliable forecasting (see also 2.1). Although in its extreme point of view, Godets proposition perfectly fits the ability of diagnosing forthcoming crises. Already extremely difficult to predict a crisis, omitting parameters such as the wishes of relevant actors and other influential factors that cannot be quantified makes it impossible even to sense it. It is in this context that one should not disregard the importance of other forecasting resources -apart from data- including assumptions, insight and judgment, all of them involving the subjectivity factor. If managing to get over the reef of the NIH syndrome, creativity and broad minded thinking are also essential elements for good forecasting. Question 4 1973 may be granted as the most pivotal year in energy history. The energy crisis defining the period began on October 17, 1973, when the Arab members of OPEC along with Egypt and Syria, all together comprising OAPEC, decided to place an embargo on shipments of crude oil to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt, mainly targeting at the United States and Netherlands. The result of this decision also brought about major oil price increases. Because of the fact that OPEC was the dominant oil distributor at the time, the price increase implied serious impacts on the national economies of the targeted countries, therefore suggesting an international range crisis. Although the embargo was lifted in March 1974, the effects of the energy crisis, mainly in terms of price increase, lingered on throughout the 1970s, with the Iranian crisis aggravating the situation (see also 4.1). Suggesting a crisis that was mainly expressed on the basis of high energy pricing, the outcome of the previous questions concerned with the determination of energy price influential parameters may be illustrated. In fact, the impact of a more or less unanticipated event changed the correlation patterns between supply and demand and imposed the attachment of high tensions in the market balance, the latter entailing the high volatility of oil price and its potential outburst ever since (Regnier, 2007). The market structures, the dominance of OPEC and the political tension, all suggest aspects of the crisis illustrating the importance of considering qualitative parameters as well. As Godet well pointed out, one cannot neglect the wishes and decisions of major actors when configuring the future (e.g. OPEC members). Similar to the 1973 oil crisis, the California energy crisis occurring some 27 years later also revealed the strength of key actors in completely changing what was meant to follow a past trend or ameliorate a past situation. The deregulation of the electricity market in California (during 1998) targeting to decrease the highest of retail prices among the States turned into a complete fiasco that abetted the manipulation of the market by the energy companies. The crisis main characteristics involved very high wholesale prices, interrupted service of customers (rolling blackouts), bankrupt utilities and huge state expenditures, while the crisis main causes were: The lack of new generating capacity inside California (California was heavily dependent on energy imports from nearby states (CEC, 2007a)). The coincidence of a dry year and natural gas spikes with other market oriented factors (California was largely based on hydro and natural gas for the consumers electrification). The market structure allowing generators to manipulate wholesale prices in the power exchange market through escalating power plants outages that caused market disorder (on the other hand there was a retail price cap that did not allow the investor owned utilities to pass the increasing cost of wholesale purchases to consumers). The delay and inability of the regulators to predict the crisis and respond to it (it was only after a certain time that a wholesale cap was set by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and an increase of retail prices was allowed to the investor owned utilities). Emphasizing on the manipulation of the market by the energy generators, in 4.2 one may observe the out of schedule power plant outages rapid increase during the period of the crisis, even exceeding 10GW (approximately 20% of the total installed capacity), responsible for three series of rolling blackouts. No prediction could have captured the 300% and 400% increases of power plants outages. The analogous increase in wholesale prices being the result of the appearing power deficit caused the major suppliers (3 major investor utilities (IOUs)) to be trapped between remarkable wholesale price increases and a fixed retail price (see 4.3). Further, as seen in 4.3, in the early days of deregulation a relatively smooth trend was to be encountered as far as the wholesale market prices are concerned, this also not implying the rapid increase of prices following. Accordingly, although not influenced to the same extent that the IOUs were, the instant impact to the final consumers must also be considered. Note that according to the rough forecast of retail electricity prices -being based on the respective past data- the increase of retail prices was not to be expected either because deregulation promised for a lowering of prices or because the trend applied entailed much lower prices then the ones actually presented at the time (see also 4.4). Similar to this, predictions involving oil pricing before the 1973 crisis and relying on extrapolation techniques (Anon, 1973) expected that world energy consumption would keep up in the increasing rates of 5% up to 2000. If having managed to somehow foresee the 1973 oil price increase, the predictions made would not be exclusively based on the past data trend that would undoubtedly provide a misjudgement of future prices (see also 4.5). What actually followed for the years to come (1980 to 2000) was a 20 years mean annual increase rate of 1.7%. Furthermore, if only having used quantitative data, none could have predicted before the crisis that USA would cut back on oil use. In , 4.6 the response of the USA to the crisis effect reveals the review of energy patterns issued by the government for the times to come. What is also interesting to note in the is the lead time in order to adapt to the new situation encountered (e.g. the natural gas contribution share started increasing 5 year s after the crisis). Another critical point concerning the weaknesses of forecasting previous to crises, not related to the use of numerical past data, may be met in the case of California. Once the regulators and the state adopted a deregulation system that was elsewhere applied successfully (Woo et al., 2003), they decided to proceed in certain modifications (i.e. partial deregulation and imposition of retail price caps) without bothering to consider the different characteristics, features and conditions of operation encountered in the California environment. Hence what might have been thought as successful elsewhere would not be a priori successful in California as well. Finally, if the modification of market structures and potential manipulations had been taken into account via the implementation of alternative scenarios assessing the risk of deregulating the Californian electricity market, certain versatile mechanisms that would instantly respond to a potential crisis may have been put forward. From the analysis provided it becomes clear that forecasting methods that solely rely on past data trends, disregard the wishes of relevant actors and major players, and do not consider the conditions forming the environment where the phenomenon develops cannot capture a broader view of the situation and thus give valid predictions. Question 5 As already addressed, the limited ability of quantitative parameters and extrapolation techniques to provide a valid forecasting, especially in the case where a crisis was to follow, is indisputable. To validate the conclusion made and further support Godets beliefs an example is presently given. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 along with the application of extrapolation techniques (the forecast function is currently used) one may present the expected nuclear capacity time evolution for the next twenty years. A straightforward comparison of the extrapolation s with the respective real data for the period 1987 to 2007 is available in 5.1. What of course cannot be captured by the extrapolation technique is the Chernobyl crisis, deeply influencing any further development of the nuclear installations. It was on the 26th of April 1986 that reactor number four at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, located in Ukraine exploded. By considering the magnitude of consequences that the Chernobyl accident entailed (UNDP UNICEF, 2002), one may easily realize the cut back of nuclear capacity in the years to come. Furthermore, what is interesting to note is the different influence that the Chernobyl accident had in countries around the world. In 5.2 one may see the immediate response of the Russians, the Germans and the Ukrainians, while it took a little longer for the USA to reconsider its nuclear program. On the contrary, countries like France and Japan continued to install nuclear plants, while on the other hand Italy abandoned its nuclear program and gradually decommissioned all of its plants (NEA, 2007). What is evaluated here, is the conditions configuring the future. Although in a global level, nuclear capacity did stagnate, this was not the case for every country. Depending on each nations needs, requirements and obligations, a different energy policy may be drawn. If not properly weighing these factors in the forecasting process, the outcome cannot be valid. Based on s 5.1 and 5.2, one may also note the lead time of both the international community and the selected countries. Regarding the response of the world as a whole, a period of 3 to 4 years is to be considered for the international community to perform the actions concerned with the decision of cutting back on nuclears. As already noted, a varying response time met in different countries may be partially ascribed to the distance range from the area of the accident. However, a bundle of parameters should be evaluated in order to explain and predict each actors wishes, obligations and decisions. Moreover, when investigating the long term evolution of nuclear power, one should also consider the factor of a rapidly changing environment. Since the Chernobyl accident and the stagnation of nuclear power occurred, any attempt to reestablish previous growth rates has to deal with competitors such as the galloping natural gas market, the return of the coal sector and the maturity of renewable energy technologies (Lovins, 2005). Besides, the considerations regarding waste management, decommissioning expenses and the risk of a new Chernobyl still remain strong. PART B-Introduction Europe becoming increasingly dependent on imported amounts of energy is indisputable. According to the estimations of the recent business as usual scenarios (EC, 2007), it is expected that the energy imports dependency of Europe will increase from the present 50% to a total of 65% by 2030. Within this forecast, reliance on imports of natural gas is expected to increase from 57% to 84% while the respective increase for oil imports shall correspond to an additional 11%, i.e. from 82% to 93%. In this context, European countries and Russia hold a strong interdependency bond based on the significant European energy imports of oil and natural gas supplied by Russia. Note that loss of autonomy is always a side effect of an interdependent relationship as the parties are constrained by their need for one another. Gazprom being the largest Russian company and the greatest natural gas exporter in the world (Cedigaz, 2007) constantly raises its share in the European market, with the respective volume of natural gas supplies reaching 161.5 billion cubic meters during 2006 (Gazprom, 2007), equal to approximately 26% of the total European natural gas needs. Being also Russias single natural gas exporter (according to the Federal Law on Natural Gas Exports adopted in July 2006), Gazprom alone utilizes the existing natural gas pipelines in order to supply Europe (see also Appendix, Existing Natural Gas Pipelines). Meanwhile a series of recent and past events mainly suggesting disputes with Ukraine and Belarus (Bruce, 2005; Stern, 2006) have questioned the security of supply towards Europe, this revealing the potential gaming behavior of the Russians, either to satisfy political purposes or simply take advantage of the energy card in terms of increased pricing. Similar to the 1973 energy crisis and the recent oil price major increases, a scenario concerned with the raise of European natural gas supplies price by Gazprom is to be examined. The scenario supports that unless the desire of Gazprom for a 200% increase of natural gas prices is satisfied, supply towards Europe will be stopped. Question 6 Given the threat of a 200% price increase of natural gas heading towards European countries, an effort is presently carried out in order to investigate the measured responses of both an energy supplier and an energy user being involved in the potential crisis occurrence. Because of the particular features attributed to the subject under investigation, several cases of different energy suppliers and users may be examined. A macroscopic approach may consider two major sides, i.e. the European countries and Gazprom (Russia). However, a closer look focusing on country level and considering organizations as well is thought to be essential in order to better evaluate the situation. As already seen in the previous question concerned with the nuclear power evolution, not all countries responded in the same way to the Chernobyl crisis (NEA, 2007). Working on a country level, energy users will derive from the main Gazprom customers in both Western-Central Europe and the Commonwealth of Indepen dent States (CIS)-Baltic countries (see also Table 6.I). On the other hand, the major energy supplier shall refer to either Gazprom or another natural gas supplier. The alternative of considering different energy sources suppliers will be also outlined. Furthermore, both conservative and more extreme solutions responding to the problem will be considered. Table 6.I: Key s o Price Forecasts for Oil Price Forecasts for Oil â€Å"TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING CRISIS ANALYSIS† Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART ONE Michel Godet indicated that qualitative parameters were important in accurate forecasting. Using the available information in the international literature and between 1000 and 1500 words: 1. Mention the qualitative parameters that may be considered in future energy price scenarios. For this purpose take the year 2020 and list, with a brief explanation, the parameters you consider should be included. 2. Which of these parameters can you reasonably quantify? (Attempt to identify at least five parameters) 3. Do you agree with this specific aspect of Godets proposition? Why or why not? 4. Evaluate a crisis impact of the accuracy of technology forecasting. Identify the parameters characterizing the crisis aspects. Accordingly, present your opinion about the validity of the forecasts. 5. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 estimate (using extrapolation techniques) the expected nuclear power time evolution between 1987 and 2007. Comment on the accuracy of your forecasts in relation with the real data. Can you mention any lead time between the major accident of Chernobyl and the reaction of the international electrical power market? PART TWO The OPEC oil price rise in 1973 had an important effect on energy use and energy efficiency, although much of the impact was short-lived. In 2003-4 the oil price effectively doubled, reaching $50/barrel for a period and lately it has reached over $90/barrel. A major player now is Gazprom in Russia News has broken that Gazprom will cut supplies of natural gas to Europe unless it is allowed to raise prices by 200% for export customers, (Customers in Russia historically pay much lower prices). Using the available information in the international literature and between 2000 and 2500 words: 6. Describe your measured response to this, as either an energy Supplier or major energy user. 7. Would you say that your response was based upon â€Å"out of the box† solutions, or a more conservative, incremental approach? 8. Discuss the relative merits and limitations of each of these possible responses, identifying what you believe the two approaches mean. 9. How this crisis shall influence the future of European economies? How could these effects been mitigated? Make your own forecasts. Your answers to 6-8 above are based upon assumed positions within organisations which may employ many people. The next part of this question relates to the impact rising energy prices and, perhaps more importantly, the effect of climate change, may have on your own style of living. 10. At a personal/domestic level, can you foresee a situation in which we may consider that for the benefit of all, we may need to make do with less, in terms of capital goods, travel, and perceived acceptable levels of comfort? Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART A-Introduction Based on the Prospective approach and the scenarios method (Godet, 1982), Michel Godet noted the limitations of the classical forecasting concerned with quantification and models (see also Appendix, Table Ap.I). According to Godet, models that only consider quantified parameters do not take into account the development of new relationships and the possible changes in trends. The impossibility of forecasting the future as a function solely of past data is directly related to the omission of qualitative and non-quantifiable parameters such as the wishes and behaviour of relevant actors (Godet, 1982). Furthermore, to structure future scenarios, the variables related to the phenomenon under investigation and the variables configuring its environment should be recognized and analyzed in detail. Besides, the interrelationship among variables, the relative power and fundamental actors, their strategies and available resources as well as the objectives and constraints that must be overcome, should also be taken into account. By granting energy as a commodity under the view of conventional economic theories, markets and price mechanisms are used in order to allocate the respective resources. More specifically, it is the interaction of demand and supply in the markets that allocates resources and largely shapes prices, and it is the broader ecosystem boundaries that these market interactions take place in. Energy pricing, with energy being perceived either as an input or as a potentially polluting source of our ecosystem, clearly stands upon both the sub disciplines of resource and environmental economics (Sweeney, 2004), also depending on the social, political and technological status of the time being and the time to come until 2020. In this context, one may acknowledge a bundle of parameters that may be considered for configuring the respective future energy price scenarios. What is important to note is that similar to the beliefs of Godet, the parameters involved should be studied in terms of interrela tionship, while qualitative and non quantified parameters should be taken into account as well. Question 1 As already mentioned, the configuration of prices within a market -the energy market currently discussed- is largely dependent on the supply and demand balance. This is measured by the respective supply and demand tension expressing the status of a commodity in market terms and providing indications concerning potential energy price changes. While high tensions imply prices imbalance, the opposite is valid for low tension rates. Hence, in order to evaluate future energy prices on the basis of parameters, one should identify the parameters that influence the supply-demand balance in every of the fields previously acknowledged (i.e. social, political, environmental, economical and technological). In this context, in 1.1 the most influential of the parameters configuring energy prices may be encountered. Energy markets are largely influenced by the economic growth factors expressed on the basis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, interest and unemployment rates. Given the economic growth along with the parameter of demographics (regarding both the population increase and migrations) one may picture the corresponding trend in energy consumption (i.e. the demand side). Following, policy decisions concerning the determination of fuel mix are determinative as far as energy pricing is considered. For instance, fossil fuels continuing to dominate will stimulate stricter pollution prevention legislation measures (e.g. taxation) and policies for tackling climate change and global warming that will raise energy prices. In parallel, the reinforcement of the respective market holders, potentially leading to strong monopolies, should also be expected. Turning to renewable energy sources may on the one hand -for some of the technologies- imply an adjustment period in order for the corresponding markets to balance and on the other entail significant environmental benefits, in monetary terms as well. Global warming and climate change effects being evident supports the implementation of mitigation measures towards the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this holding a key role in respect of the future. Reserves holding a key role in the future configuration of energy prices not only in terms of scarcity, but also in terms of production costs is directly related with the technological development concerning the exploitation of new deposits and the promotion of substitutes. As already implied, the power of existing markets is another key factor while the efficiency and absorption of energy investments -the investment shares and outcomes of research and development efforts should be underlined- must be also taken into account. The factors concerned with the quality of life suggest an additional parameter that may affect energy consumption patterns and one that cannot be easily captured despite of the indices recommended so far (Allen, 1991). Moreover, as properly put in the Annual Energy Outlook of 2007 (EIA, 2007a), energy markets projections are subject to much uncertainty (unanticipated events). Many of the events that shape energy markets and therefore the price of energy as well cannot be foreseen. These include unexpected weather events and natural disasters (Rezek and Blair, 2008), major innovations and technological breakthroughs (Marbà ¡n and Valdà ©s-Solà ­s, 2007; Varandas, 2008), disruptions and whirls in the political level (Stern, 2006) with analogous societal consequences, the outbreak of a war (Tahmassebi, 1986; Fernandez, 2008) or a nuclear accident, all of them either smouldering or implying blind spots that cannot be directly projected and consequently quantified. Besides, another area of uncertainty is concerned with the fact that even the established trends steady evolution cannot be guaranteed. Summarizing, a brief explanation was presently given on how each of the parameters acknowledged may influence energy pricing. Additionally, an effort was also carried out in order to give a short description of the interrelationship among parameters, this supporting one of Godets arguments. Insisting on the interrelationship of variables, several of the parameters previously encountered should be diffused to every major regional energy market, the latter being largely influenced by the relationship between fuel types and energy sectors (see also 1.2). Eventually, one may result in a rather complex system that encounters the evolution of influential parameters inside the balance between energy types and energy sectors, this revealing the crucial role of energy fuel mix previously discussed. Following, an effort is carried out in order to reasonably quantify some of the parameters acknowledged. Question 2 Given the bundle of parameters that are thought to influence future energy pricing, a certain number of them can be quantified. For instance, the parameters of population, economic growth, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, energy reserves, and energy fuel mix can be expressed in numerical terms. Demographic growth examines how regional and global demography changes over time. According to the United Nations projections (UN, 2006), world population will increase by over 1 billion people in the years to come until 2020, this suggesting an annual increase rate of 1.1%. While in some areas there is a negative population growth to be considered (e.g. European countries), the opposite may be encountered for some of the Asian countries (e.g. India) where overpopulation is met (see for example 2.1 with EIA forecasts). Besides, the migration of people comprises an additional factor influencing energy patterns via the imposition of unequal population distribution already encountered due to birth and mortality rates. Based on the energy consumption trends ( 2.2), it is expected that energy demand related to all energy products will increase in the years to come, even in such levels that supply may not be able to adequately respond (Asif and Muneer, 2007). In fact, the annual world energy consumption growth is approximately 2% with projections supporting future average rates of 1.1% per annum (EIA, 2007b). In fact, by considering the two of parameters so far examined one may result in the most substantial energy per cap index, clearly establishing the differentiation in energy consumption patterns among world regions (see also question 10). Furthermore, according to the WEO claims (WEC, 2007) that energy generated from fossil fuels will remain the main energy source (expected to cover almost 83% of global energy demand in 2030) and given the 2020 time horizon, much depends on the appearing constraints of world energy reserves, especially those regarding oil and natural gas. While certain studies sound relieving (WCI, 2007), others questioning the extent of increase in the production outputs ring the alarm of forthcoming peaks within the next one or two decades (Bentley, 2002). If the latter is valid, the corresponding demand will not be met, prices will rise, inflation, and international tension will become very likely to occur, and inevitably energy users will have to ration (Wirl, 2008). Overall, what the combination of energy mix with energy reserves provides is the measuring of security of supply, the latter configuring the supply and demand tensions, largely shaping energy prices. Besides, targets set in respect of renewable energy sources further penetration also provide a quantification view; e.g. the EWEA target for 22% coverage of the European electricity consumption by 2030 (EWEA, 2006). Next, expressing economic growth on the basis of gross domestic product (GDP) suggests a constant increase of the former within the range of an average 3% to 4% per year (IMF, 2004), noted during the period from 1970 to 2003. Again, inequity that is to be considered among different world regions is directly related with the previous parameters, illustrating the energy requirements variation. A characteristic example considers China demonstrating an average annual percent change of GDP 2.4% greater than the world average. In 2.3, the respective trends of GDP growth up to the year 2020 may be obtained. Finally, the environmental impact of energy use being expressed on the basis of GHG emissions not only considers the fuel mix and energy consumption but also takes into account the technology used for energy generation. Taking CO2, an increase of 17Gt in a 34 years period, i.e. from 1970 to 2004 (IPCC, 2007), indicates the strong increasing trend, also presented in 2.4. Given also some of the commitments adopted in order to mitigate the greenhouse effect however (e.g. the Kyoto protocol), further quantification, not relying solely on past trends, is possible. The stimulation of additional mitigation measures until 2020 is rather likely, this both imposing the need for shifting to non-fossil fuels and developing cleaner energy generation technologies. Considering the various parameters trends illustrated above, one may sense that the tensions between supply and demand, this comprising the main driver for energy prices, are going to rise. Energy consumption, GDP and population rates on one hand demonstrate the demand side, while declining reserves and mitigation measures describe the opposite supply side. In between, the decisions for future energy fuel mix patterns, although able to completely reverse the energy markets status quo, are not thought to radically vary within the next 10 to 15 years. Hence, unless some major changes occur, the rising tensions between supply and demand imply both instability and increase of prices on a global level with strong differentiation to be encountered among different world regions. As far as the degree of energy price variation is concerned, the implementation of forecasting may both incorporate all of the pre-mentioned parameters and provide various scenarios considering each ones expected fu ture time evolution. Question 3 As previously seen, several parameters were acknowledged in order to form future energy price scenarios. While some of them were possible to quantify, others although not quantified were equally important inputs to keep in mind. Apart from the given inaccuracy of data (either high or low levelled) coupled with unstable models and the pertinacity of explaining the future in terms of the past, Godet emphasizes on the lack of a global and qualitative approach concerned with forecasting (Godet, 1982). Although quantitative methods may prove to be reliable enough and reasonably accurate for short term forecasts, the same is not valid for forecasts concerned with longer periods. The greater the distance from the reference point, the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to provide valid forecasts (see also 3.1). In this context, it is critical to comment on the relativity of time scales noted among the study of various phenomena. Hence, what may seem short termed for one phenomenon studied may actually comprise a long period forecast for another that appears to be rapidly changing over time. Any case given, the chances of significant changes regarding the environment in which the phenomenon under study develops are considerably higher as the time horizon becomes longer and it would be more or less naà ¯ve to solely depend on forecasting methods like the extrapolation of trends. Furthermore, the complexity of phenomena studied and the interdependence among the influencing parameters calls for the inclusion of both quantitative and qualitative parameters with Godet clearly addressing the complementarity between the prospective and classical forecasting (Godet, 1982). It was in fact during the first section of this part that the analysis of energy pricing configuration revealed the importance of interaction between quantitative and qualitative parameters. Energy price could not be disengaged from the parallel evolvement of parameters that even though not easily quantified, do structure the phenomenon environment (e.g. political, technological, economic, social, legal and other aspects). What must be outlined here is that similar to the scaling of decision making (strategic-long term, innovative-medium term, operational-short term), the role of quantitative data is gradually fading out as we tend to conceptualize the entire phenomenon environment. Hence the bro ader the view, again the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to support a reliable forecasting (see also 2.1). Although in its extreme point of view, Godets proposition perfectly fits the ability of diagnosing forthcoming crises. Already extremely difficult to predict a crisis, omitting parameters such as the wishes of relevant actors and other influential factors that cannot be quantified makes it impossible even to sense it. It is in this context that one should not disregard the importance of other forecasting resources -apart from data- including assumptions, insight and judgment, all of them involving the subjectivity factor. If managing to get over the reef of the NIH syndrome, creativity and broad minded thinking are also essential elements for good forecasting. Question 4 1973 may be granted as the most pivotal year in energy history. The energy crisis defining the period began on October 17, 1973, when the Arab members of OPEC along with Egypt and Syria, all together comprising OAPEC, decided to place an embargo on shipments of crude oil to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt, mainly targeting at the United States and Netherlands. The result of this decision also brought about major oil price increases. Because of the fact that OPEC was the dominant oil distributor at the time, the price increase implied serious impacts on the national economies of the targeted countries, therefore suggesting an international range crisis. Although the embargo was lifted in March 1974, the effects of the energy crisis, mainly in terms of price increase, lingered on throughout the 1970s, with the Iranian crisis aggravating the situation (see also 4.1). Suggesting a crisis that was mainly expressed on the basis of high energy pricing, the outcome of the previous questions concerned with the determination of energy price influential parameters may be illustrated. In fact, the impact of a more or less unanticipated event changed the correlation patterns between supply and demand and imposed the attachment of high tensions in the market balance, the latter entailing the high volatility of oil price and its potential outburst ever since (Regnier, 2007). The market structures, the dominance of OPEC and the political tension, all suggest aspects of the crisis illustrating the importance of considering qualitative parameters as well. As Godet well pointed out, one cannot neglect the wishes and decisions of major actors when configuring the future (e.g. OPEC members). Similar to the 1973 oil crisis, the California energy crisis occurring some 27 years later also revealed the strength of key actors in completely changing what was meant to follow a past trend or ameliorate a past situation. The deregulation of the electricity market in California (during 1998) targeting to decrease the highest of retail prices among the States turned into a complete fiasco that abetted the manipulation of the market by the energy companies. The crisis main characteristics involved very high wholesale prices, interrupted service of customers (rolling blackouts), bankrupt utilities and huge state expenditures, while the crisis main causes were: The lack of new generating capacity inside California (California was heavily dependent on energy imports from nearby states (CEC, 2007a)). The coincidence of a dry year and natural gas spikes with other market oriented factors (California was largely based on hydro and natural gas for the consumers electrification). The market structure allowing generators to manipulate wholesale prices in the power exchange market through escalating power plants outages that caused market disorder (on the other hand there was a retail price cap that did not allow the investor owned utilities to pass the increasing cost of wholesale purchases to consumers). The delay and inability of the regulators to predict the crisis and respond to it (it was only after a certain time that a wholesale cap was set by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and an increase of retail prices was allowed to the investor owned utilities). Emphasizing on the manipulation of the market by the energy generators, in 4.2 one may observe the out of schedule power plant outages rapid increase during the period of the crisis, even exceeding 10GW (approximately 20% of the total installed capacity), responsible for three series of rolling blackouts. No prediction could have captured the 300% and 400% increases of power plants outages. The analogous increase in wholesale prices being the result of the appearing power deficit caused the major suppliers (3 major investor utilities (IOUs)) to be trapped between remarkable wholesale price increases and a fixed retail price (see 4.3). Further, as seen in 4.3, in the early days of deregulation a relatively smooth trend was to be encountered as far as the wholesale market prices are concerned, this also not implying the rapid increase of prices following. Accordingly, although not influenced to the same extent that the IOUs were, the instant impact to the final consumers must also be considered. Note that according to the rough forecast of retail electricity prices -being based on the respective past data- the increase of retail prices was not to be expected either because deregulation promised for a lowering of prices or because the trend applied entailed much lower prices then the ones actually presented at the time (see also 4.4). Similar to this, predictions involving oil pricing before the 1973 crisis and relying on extrapolation techniques (Anon, 1973) expected that world energy consumption would keep up in the increasing rates of 5% up to 2000. If having managed to somehow foresee the 1973 oil price increase, the predictions made would not be exclusively based on the past data trend that would undoubtedly provide a misjudgement of future prices (see also 4.5). What actually followed for the years to come (1980 to 2000) was a 20 years mean annual increase rate of 1.7%. Furthermore, if only having used quantitative data, none could have predicted before the crisis that USA would cut back on oil use. In , 4.6 the response of the USA to the crisis effect reveals the review of energy patterns issued by the government for the times to come. What is also interesting to note in the is the lead time in order to adapt to the new situation encountered (e.g. the natural gas contribution share started increasing 5 year s after the crisis). Another critical point concerning the weaknesses of forecasting previous to crises, not related to the use of numerical past data, may be met in the case of California. Once the regulators and the state adopted a deregulation system that was elsewhere applied successfully (Woo et al., 2003), they decided to proceed in certain modifications (i.e. partial deregulation and imposition of retail price caps) without bothering to consider the different characteristics, features and conditions of operation encountered in the California environment. Hence what might have been thought as successful elsewhere would not be a priori successful in California as well. Finally, if the modification of market structures and potential manipulations had been taken into account via the implementation of alternative scenarios assessing the risk of deregulating the Californian electricity market, certain versatile mechanisms that would instantly respond to a potential crisis may have been put forward. From the analysis provided it becomes clear that forecasting methods that solely rely on past data trends, disregard the wishes of relevant actors and major players, and do not consider the conditions forming the environment where the phenomenon develops cannot capture a broader view of the situation and thus give valid predictions. Question 5 As already addressed, the limited ability of quantitative parameters and extrapolation techniques to provide a valid forecasting, especially in the case where a crisis was to follow, is indisputable. To validate the conclusion made and further support Godets beliefs an example is presently given. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 along with the application of extrapolation techniques (the forecast function is currently used) one may present the expected nuclear capacity time evolution for the next twenty years. A straightforward comparison of the extrapolation s with the respective real data for the period 1987 to 2007 is available in 5.1. What of course cannot be captured by the extrapolation technique is the Chernobyl crisis, deeply influencing any further development of the nuclear installations. It was on the 26th of April 1986 that reactor number four at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, located in Ukraine exploded. By considering the magnitude of consequences that the Chernobyl accident entailed (UNDP UNICEF, 2002), one may easily realize the cut back of nuclear capacity in the years to come. Furthermore, what is interesting to note is the different influence that the Chernobyl accident had in countries around the world. In 5.2 one may see the immediate response of the Russians, the Germans and the Ukrainians, while it took a little longer for the USA to reconsider its nuclear program. On the contrary, countries like France and Japan continued to install nuclear plants, while on the other hand Italy abandoned its nuclear program and gradually decommissioned all of its plants (NEA, 2007). What is evaluated here, is the conditions configuring the future. Although in a global level, nuclear capacity did stagnate, this was not the case for every country. Depending on each nations needs, requirements and obligations, a different energy policy may be drawn. If not properly weighing these factors in the forecasting process, the outcome cannot be valid. Based on s 5.1 and 5.2, one may also note the lead time of both the international community and the selected countries. Regarding the response of the world as a whole, a period of 3 to 4 years is to be considered for the international community to perform the actions concerned with the decision of cutting back on nuclears. As already noted, a varying response time met in different countries may be partially ascribed to the distance range from the area of the accident. However, a bundle of parameters should be evaluated in order to explain and predict each actors wishes, obligations and decisions. Moreover, when investigating the long term evolution of nuclear power, one should also consider the factor of a rapidly changing environment. Since the Chernobyl accident and the stagnation of nuclear power occurred, any attempt to reestablish previous growth rates has to deal with competitors such as the galloping natural gas market, the return of the coal sector and the maturity of renewable energy technologies (Lovins, 2005). Besides, the considerations regarding waste management, decommissioning expenses and the risk of a new Chernobyl still remain strong. PART B-Introduction Europe becoming increasingly dependent on imported amounts of energy is indisputable. According to the estimations of the recent business as usual scenarios (EC, 2007), it is expected that the energy imports dependency of Europe will increase from the present 50% to a total of 65% by 2030. Within this forecast, reliance on imports of natural gas is expected to increase from 57% to 84% while the respective increase for oil imports shall correspond to an additional 11%, i.e. from 82% to 93%. In this context, European countries and Russia hold a strong interdependency bond based on the significant European energy imports of oil and natural gas supplied by Russia. Note that loss of autonomy is always a side effect of an interdependent relationship as the parties are constrained by their need for one another. Gazprom being the largest Russian company and the greatest natural gas exporter in the world (Cedigaz, 2007) constantly raises its share in the European market, with the respective volume of natural gas supplies reaching 161.5 billion cubic meters during 2006 (Gazprom, 2007), equal to approximately 26% of the total European natural gas needs. Being also Russias single natural gas exporter (according to the Federal Law on Natural Gas Exports adopted in July 2006), Gazprom alone utilizes the existing natural gas pipelines in order to supply Europe (see also Appendix, Existing Natural Gas Pipelines). Meanwhile a series of recent and past events mainly suggesting disputes with Ukraine and Belarus (Bruce, 2005; Stern, 2006) have questioned the security of supply towards Europe, this revealing the potential gaming behavior of the Russians, either to satisfy political purposes or simply take advantage of the energy card in terms of increased pricing. Similar to the 1973 energy crisis and the recent oil price major increases, a scenario concerned with the raise of European natural gas supplies price by Gazprom is to be examined. The scenario supports that unless the desire of Gazprom for a 200% increase of natural gas prices is satisfied, supply towards Europe will be stopped. Question 6 Given the threat of a 200% price increase of natural gas heading towards European countries, an effort is presently carried out in order to investigate the measured responses of both an energy supplier and an energy user being involved in the potential crisis occurrence. Because of the particular features attributed to the subject under investigation, several cases of different energy suppliers and users may be examined. A macroscopic approach may consider two major sides, i.e. the European countries and Gazprom (Russia). However, a closer look focusing on country level and considering organizations as well is thought to be essential in order to better evaluate the situation. As already seen in the previous question concerned with the nuclear power evolution, not all countries responded in the same way to the Chernobyl crisis (NEA, 2007). Working on a country level, energy users will derive from the main Gazprom customers in both Western-Central Europe and the Commonwealth of Indepen dent States (CIS)-Baltic countries (see also Table 6.I). On the other hand, the major energy supplier shall refer to either Gazprom or another natural gas supplier. The alternative of considering different energy sources suppliers will be also outlined. Furthermore, both conservative and more extreme solutions responding to the problem will be considered. Table 6.I: Key s o

Genesis and Paradise Lost Essay -- Religion, God, Satan, Milton

The words God speaks at the Creation are the ultimate and original speech act; as narrated in Genesis and Paradise Lost, God only has to speak and the words come into effect: And God said, 'Let there be light'; and there was light... (Genesis, 1:3) Let there be light, said God, and forthwith light Ethereal, first of things, quintessence pure Sprung from the deep... (VII.243) Milton inverts the arrangement of the identification of the voice and the spoken words themselves, thus absorbing God's voice entirely into the poetic lines.s Satan is an inveterate liar who abuses language for his own evil purposes. Satan's language is 'Ambiguous and with double sense deluding' (Paradise Regained, I.435), whereas the Son's language (and by extension God's) enforces a kind of linguistic harmony where 'Thy actions to thy words accord' (Paradise Regained, III.9). In Paradise Lost, Satan's 'ambiguous words' (V.703, VI.568) act as 'persuasive' traps, 'replete with guile' (IX.737, 733). He utters 'high words, that bore | Semblance of worth not substance' (I.528), and it is worth bearing this in mind should you be tempted to succumb to his enticing rhetoric, as Eve or, more recently the poets Shelley and Blake have been known to do! God's words are necessarily congruent with their meaning (God is unable to lie). But while Satan lacks the power of speech acts, he has the sophistical ability to dissemble. In the beginning of Book I of Paradise Lost, true to epic convention, John Milton invokes the muse, but his muse is no less than the Holy Spirit: And chiefly Thou O Spirit, that dost prefer†¨Before all Temples th’ upright heart and pure,†¨Instruct me, for Thou know’st; Thou from the first†¨Wast present, and with mighty wings outspread†¨Dove-l... ...a child whose only reply from parental authority was an unsatisfying â€Å"Because I said so!† But then such children grow up and search for their own answers. Blake’s point begins to make sense if Paradise Lost is evaluated on its poetic success and its theological failure. Milton â€Å"was a true Poet, and of the Devil’s party without knowing it† in that his poetry unwittingly brought Satan to life while trying to destroy him. Satan, warts and all, is probably the most memorable presence in the poem and likely all readers retain of it. Similarly Milton’s theology is so weak and flawed that it opens the door to a devastating philosophical counterattack. In trying to justify God, Milton actually accomplishes the opposite as demonstrated by the failure of Book III. For Blake, Milton the Epic Poet ultimately trumps Milton the Christian Apologist who surely desired otherwise.

Dwarfism Essay -- Exploratory Essays Research Papers

Dwarfism Although people are different in many ways, few differences are more obvious than dwarfism. Because dwarfism is relatively rare, not many worry about unprejudiced treatment of dwarfs.But dwarfs deal with the same issues as â€Å"normal† people, while also trying to overcome the problems posed by their abnormally small height. The novel Stones from the River makes us aware of these problems and raises questions:What is dwarfism?And how do dwarfs feel about their conditions? And how does people’s treatment of dwarfs affect their outlook on society in general? â€Å"Dwarfism† is a term used to describe the condition of those whose bodies are significantly smaller than the average person’s.A dwarf may suffer from medical problems, which can lead to many deformities and complications throughout life.The deformities of some dwarfs, according to the Little People’s Research Fund website, can lead to extensive disabilities, paralysis, and even death.Over one and a half million people in the United States suffer from some condition of dwarfism (Billy Barty).What many do not know, however, is that most dwarfs are born to families that have no history of dwarfism in their families. There are many different types of dwarfism that researchers have confirmed today, but there still are many genes for dwarfism that remain unidentified.The most common of these known causes is achondroplasia, a bone growth disorder.The Little People Online website states that most dwarfs who suffer from achondroplasia are born to â€Å"average-size† parents, and that their birth rate is somewhere between onein26,000-40,000www.lpaonline.org).The main characteristics of this form of dwarfism are normal trunk size with short appendages, irregularly large heads wi... ...e dealing with her own emotional turmoil over accepting herself for who she is.Trudi, like other dwarfs of the past and present, is forced to accept who she is. Works Cited The Billy Barty Foundation.Online.Internet.10 Oct. 2000.Available:http://www.lprf.org/dwarfism.html DrKoop.com.Online.Internet.Medical Encyclopedia.9 Oct. 2000.Available: http://www.drkoop.com/conditions/ency/article/001247.htm Hegi, Ursula.Stones from the River.New York:Simon & Schuster, 1994. The Human Genome Project.Online.Internet.Personal Experiences.10 Oct. 2000. Available:http://mcet.edu/genome/issuesandethics/personal/dwarfism.html Little People of America, Inc..Online.Internet.10 Oct. 2000.Available: http://www.lpaonline.org/resources_dwarftypes.html Little People’s Research Fund, Inc.Online.Internet.10 Oct. 2000.Available: http://www.lprf.org/dwarfism.html

ESL Education Essay

Facilitating education and learning of English language in developing countries has been a challenge for ESL teachers through the years. The capability of these countries to continually adapt to the globalizing economy has been gradually increasing and this also applies in learning the English language. Thus, the challenge for ESL instructors is to create and improve on mechanisms that will enhance a better facilitation of English language education among students in the developing countries. Continuous development of ESL programs has been prevalent in the recent years. Also, there is an increased diversity of participants who seek to learn English. Instructors of the language on the other hand have been welcoming these changes. â€Å"English language arts teachers are especially open to embracing the richness this diversity brings to their classrooms, yet many feel ill-prepared to teach students for whom English is a second, third or possibly fourth language. † (Young, 1996, p. 17) However, the proliferation of students who are studying ESL does not evenly match instructors who facilitate their education. This situation paves the way for ESL students taking part in an English classroom that is handled by non-trained ESL instructors which greatly affects and undermines the development and learning process of students. â€Å"Despite the increase in the number of trained ESL specialists over the past 10 years or so, it is no secret that vast numbers of limited English proficient (LEP) students still spend either all or large portions of their academic life with regular or content classroom teachers. (Penfield, 1987, p. 21) Another important issue in ESL education is the facilitation and processes involved in teaching. â€Å"Issues surrounding ESL education focus on determining the ‘best’ approach to help non-native speakers of English gain appropriate academic skills. † (Young, 1996, p. 17) In addition, there have been increased outputs of literature pertaining to enhancing ESL education in schools. One issue that is addressed in studies are listening and speaking ca pabilities of ESL students. However there had been discrepancies with application of these methods on the other hand for ESL instructors. â€Å"Though these studies have been helpful to EAP teachers, few have looked beyond reading and writing skills to what college/university professors actually require with regards to academic listening and speaking skills and which of these tasks are most problematic for ESL students in a tertiary institution. (Ferris & Tag, 1996, p. 298) Thus, efficient communication, enforcement of strategies, and stabilizing the curriculum are the possible options that institutions can make in addressing these needs. The next section looks into possible strategies that can be implemented to facilitate the challenges ESL teachers face in teaching English among non-native speakers. One possible solution is creating a monitoring criterion for ESL students. This would entail ESL educators of continuously creating necessary measures and dynamics to enhance learning for their students. â€Å"During formal and informal meetings these teachers continually discuss inherent shortcomings of the procedures used in assessing their students, share their shortcomings of the procedures used in assessing their students. † (Ernst, 1994, p. 323) With this, ESL students are assured that their individual performance are assessed and evaluated to further help them in acquiring and learning the language. Also, ESL teachers must develop both listening and communication strategies with students to facilitate the learning process and develop efficient mechanisms of education. â€Å"Somehow we need to help them bridge the gap between the safe interactions they experience in ESL classes and the activities they find more challenging and threatening in content classes. † (Ferris & Tag, 1996, p. 312) Creating listening strategies can also make ESL students feel comfortable and secure that their interests are seen and provides them the avenue to express what they really want. ESL teachers should simulate free-form classroom lecture discussions for their students and analyze videotaped classroom interactions with their students so that ESL students can be better prepared for the realities. † (Ferris & Tag, 1996, p. 312) Another possible alternative is the creation of â€Å"ESL Task Group†. â€Å"This group should consist of representatives of the total school community, be small enough for efficient operation, and be chaired by most competent person available. † (Levenson, 1969, p. 1) With the creation of this, the group must follow the necessary phases that includes (1) gathering information, (2) observation and evaluation, (3) surveying and (4) constant communication with important groups and organizations. Another issue that can be addressed is the issue of writing among ESL students. ESL teachers must be keen to adapt and understand the dilemma these students have in the correct and proper way of writing. â€Å"ESL writers should neither be treated as completely different from native speakers nor as completely the same, that a middle ground is desirable. (Chan, 1988, pp. 84-85) In addition, ESL writers must not be discriminated of expressing their intentions and ideas in class. â€Å"Like native speakers of English, ESL writers can and should be encouraged to write as a means of discovering what they think and know and as a means of commu nicating their sides. † (Chan, 1988, p. 85) Lastly, adequate and continuous training must be given to future and current ESL instructors. Recognizing that each one is vital for the success of the program, constant awareness must be made regarding this issue. The most obvious pedagogical solution to students’ dilemma is to train professors to respond clearly and effectively to students’ informal questions and comments. † (Ferris & Tragg, 1996, p. 312) In addition, there needs to be a collaborative effort between non-ESL teachers and ESL instructors since they both have the same objective – educate. â€Å"Collaboration with other teachers who are ‘becoming’ mainstreamed ESL teachers serves as another important avenue for support. â€Å"(Young, 1996, p. 19) By being dynamic, issues regarding ESL facilitation can be eased and create learning.